Donnerstag, 18. Juni 2009

SNB keeps intervention policy alive?

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been intervening in the forex market since March and unlike other central banks who have failed with this monetary policy (RBA, BoJ), the SNB has done an incredible job keeping EUR/CHF above 1.50 for the last 12 weeks. The SNB focuses on EUR/CHF (over USD/CHF and GBP/CHF) because the European Union is by far the country’s largest trading partner. Tomorrow the SNB is expected to hold their libor rate steady at 0.25%. Probably they would like to cut interest rates, but they cant. GDP growth is expected to contract by 2.7 % this year, so the SNB wil most likely dont give up their Swissy weakening policy in the medium term. If the SNB in the press conference repeats its aim to keep the Swissy down resp. their intervention policy, current levels represent an excellent buying opportunity for EUR/CHF at around 1.5060. That said, i am long from 1.5050 this afternoon.

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