Mittwoch, 8. Juli 2009

Where is the line in the sand for the SNB?

Well, for weeks now the EUR/CHF traders world was definetely quite simple. Get long around 1.5060/0.5060 and take profit around the 1.5130/40 level, repeat this. Easy money for three months, and some steps closer to Warren Buffett. Since march The Swiss National Bank has been intervening in the currency market to keep EUR/CHF above 1.50. And compared to other central banks they do a fantastic job.
The SNB focuses on EUR/CHF over USD/CHF because the European Union is by far the country’s largest trading partner. The confusion now started after the SNB’s Jordan commented that markets should not become used to a certain level of intervention and that the purchases of foreign currency have fulfilled their purpose. Traders (mis)interpreted these statements as signaling that the SNB may now have less interest in avoiding CHF strength and that the former line in the sand EUR/CHF 1.50 may no longer be the appropriate. However, it happened that the SNBs new tolerance of CHF vs. the EUR lasted only 4 hours. As traders pushed the currency pair down after the press conference to levels in reach of the famous 1.50, EUR/CHF suddenly rocketed in minutes to a high near 1.5150. You might guess the reason: Swiss National Bank (SNB) appears to have intervened again and bought EUR/CHF, continuing its campaign to prevent the Swiss franc from strengthening against the EUR, taking out stops from blind-sided EUR/CHF bears. However, despite the SNB's actions some weeks ago and a probable unconfirmed intervention again last week at levels even near 1.51, I would take seriously the SNB comments that CHF strength will not be fought as aggressively as earlier, and would look for EUR/CHF to eventually trade below 1.5000 in coming weeks simply because first of all they cant afford to intervene permanently and second the achilles verse of every intervention is to be unpredictable and taking out traders stops before taking action. As a consequence, dips in EUR/CHF towards the 1.4900/1.5050 area should be considered EUR buying opportunities.

Keine Kommentare:

Kommentar veröffentlichen