Well, finally we got my long expected eur/usd breakdown, after a significant better NFP report last friday. 4 h and daily bearish divergences in RSI, CCI and MACD together with overbought levels made me go short this currency pair from 1.4100 up tp 1.4300 for an average price of 1.4200. Due to absurd revisions every following month, i would not bet the farm on these better NFP numbers (and I have to admit I also have my problems to understand how unemployment rate can increase so much and the payroll number itself improve), but at least short time eur/usd may complete a 1 h Head and shoulder pattern. Though this pattern is not a clear one (neckline broken before just to reverse), the first target for my shorts is set at 1.3840-20, where i will take profit from my 1.4200 shorts. 1.3840 is also a 3.5 percent correction form the 1.4300 highs seen last week, a number often seen in retracements in a still exisiting trend.
Many analysts are speculating that there may be now the time coming where good US data leads to USD strength (and not risk improvement/USD safe heaven weakness we saw the months before), however i think though its a possibility, its not more than a possibility right now. The data releases the coming weeks have to verify this thesis.
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