Mittwoch, 20. Mai 2009

New trade EUR/JPY short

I am short EUR/YEN from 131.10 after the Japanese GDP data, just below the 200-day sma at 131.22. I would look to sell the second half at 132.10, just above the 131.80/90 level, which is the top of the Ichimoku cloud and the 61.8% retracement of the most recent pullback. The stop loss will be on a daily close (5 pm NY) above 131.90, or if 133.10 trades at any time, for a total risk of around 150 pips. The take profit objectives are for 50% near recent daily close lows at 128.50.

In general, I am looking for Aud, Cable and EUR corrective bounces to short, in the upcoming week. Bearish engulfing patterns on weekly Yen-crosses and more terrible data from Eurozone, GB and US makes more and more traders think this last two weeks was nothing more than a bear market rallye and not (yet) a genuine risk reversal. If this assumption is correct or not, nobody can say, but the charts point in this direction.

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